We Indians are very knowledgeable in
three spheres: Cricket, Movies, and Politics. And everyone voices his/her skillful
opinion on these three topics very freely. (That’s nice, we are a democratic
country!).
For International Relations, though,
there are no 1 billion Indian experts. Only exception is India-Pakistan relations.
More often than not this particular chapter of International Politics evokes
passionate, emotional, and sometimes jingoistic reactions.
So when recently PM Modi stopped over
at Lahore while coming back to India from the Russia-Afghanistan tour, there
was complete chaos. The opposition was so taken aback; their reactions were of
confused and surprised people. Manish Tewari of Congress went to the extent of
declaring bizarrely that ‘Nawaz-Modi are bitten by the elusive Nobel Peace Prize
bug, damning national Interest’!
Some called this historic,
unprecedented visit as a masterstroke by PM.
Some people gave it a certification of being a game-changer in Indo-Pak, and indeed, in international politics.
(Now my two cents! I, also, have
freedom of speech, you see)
However to my mind, this visit,
although, looked impromptu, was very eruditely prepared and delicately handled.
Common sense tells us - it takes a lot of groundwork for two heads of nations to
meet.
And the most important factors
playing role here, are economic and geopolitical considerations.
A few pointers are:
1.
There is increasing Chinese influence in Asia
and in Pakistan in particular, which, if unchecked, will be extremely difficult
for both India and USA. There is growing China-Pak cooperation, military, or
otherwise. So there has to be a counter. PM, underscoring Indo-Pak relations, in
a speech at Afghanistan’s parliament (built by Indians) said “I hope that Pakistan
will become a bridge between South Asia and Afghanistan and beyond”.
2.
Majority of India-Pakistan trade is routed
through Dubai. And estimated potential of Indo-Pak trade is $16 billion.
Currently it is around $ 2 billion. So there are more opportunities for direct
Indo-Pak trade across the border, notwithstanding the perennial skirmishes.
3.
Perhaps more significant aspect is the
Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline (TAPI), also known as
Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline. Although this pipeline is expected to be
operational by 2019, it will transport Caspian Sea natural gas from
Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. The total
cost is $10 billion, and it is 1735 km long. So this will have huge positive impact
on perpetually energy requiring nation like India. TAPI may earn $400 million a
year for Afghanistan in transit fees, also meeting enormous energy needs in
Pakistan and India. This visit by PM plays positive role in this regard.
There are various things at play. International relations
are like a marathon. One dramatic turn may not yield instantaneous results. But
such a gesture by a strong, democratically elected leader like PM Modi had its
own importance and meaning. It may go a long way in our peace talks and
security/terrorism threats handling.
So let’s not jump the gun and arrive at conclusions so early.
