#Demonetisation - 500, 1000 Rs. Notes Ban – Political Masterstroke or Surgery Without Anaesthesia?

So, amazing things keep happening in our country – there is never a dull moment.

The demonetization or the ban on 500, 1000 Rs. notes, is one such unusual and unfamiliar turn of events.

The other day, I was standing in a queue to withdraw money and there were fantastic people in that line. Fruits and vegetable vendor, rickshaw driver, elderly person, and others were at that ATM. 

Obviously, the enormity of this situation was such that people started talking, without previously knowing one another.

And the bottom-line was “there is hardship, awkwardness and inconvenience – sure, but we support the historic decision taken by our PM.” Some even thought that "nothing comes from nothing" meaning “no pain - no gain.” We can manage and pass through this and things will be settled soon. Being positive is good and reflective.

To be fair, there are practical concerns and problems especially in the rural areas. Unlike urban folks, people there may not have multiple debit/credit cards.

The branches of various banks are scattered geographically. In many states, there is one branch for 5-6 villages. Therefore, rural people face much more obstacles in such circumstances. Even in cities, the exchange of old notes and use of ATM has turned out to be tiresome and annoying.  

The intention to ban the 500, 1000 Rs. notes, is very good. The concept is nice, it is the execution or implementation that, possibly, needed a little more finesse.

On the brighter side, this move could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. This can simply be a golden chance to go for digital money, net-banking, and cashless transactions, wherever possible.

If we think about the actual impact on black money and overall economy, the big picture is – possibility of inflation climbing down and cascading effects on all commodities. Now things can get better because of GST and ‘other plans and projects after 31 December’ that the PM hinted in a dramatic speech in Goa.

More importantly, there are reports of terror funding problems and fake currency prevention. Ironically, major part of fake currency comes from the India – Bangla border. This move is certainly a destructive blow to the anti-India forces.

On the political front, there is longstanding practise of nasty oneupmanship and empty bickering. Responses of Rahul Gandhi, Kejariwal, and Mamta Banerjee are so peculiar that nobody is even taking them seriously.

Actually, there could be regrouping of the opposition. And ruling dispensation has the tasks cut out for the winter session of Parliament.

Some claim that this exercise is to divert attention from burning-but-now-forgotten issues like OROP suicide and the encounter in the state of MP. However, it is not really possible because common sense dictates that this decision requires huge preparation of at least 8-9 months.

All in all, the PM still seems to enjoy the popular support. This could, very well, be the turning point for 2019 General Elections.

Now having said all above, I feel – some strong action was overdue, but this measure at one go, for 50 days – maybe, it is a surgical action without proper anaesthesia.

#Brexit – The UK breaks the European Union – And the aftermath

There are very few events that are historic and once-in-a-life-time spectacle. They do have extra-ordinary and very profound effect on the world politics and economy.

The recent event of the UK voting out of the European Union is one such landmark occasion. It is undoubtedly the biggest setback to the European integration project necessitated after the second world war.

Approximately 52 % of the people (17,410,742) in the UK voted out, compared to 48% (16,141,241) who wanted good-old association with Europe. The gap is narrow & minor; however, the democratic decision has to be respected.

Although UK always had this supremacy notion about itself, all along. It had different currency Pound Sterling than rest of Europe that had unified Euro. Not to forget, it ruled over almost 60 countries.

David Cameron had declared that Conservative government would carry out a referendum on the EU membership, if re-elected in the 2015 general elections. So last week that referendum took place, result shocked the entire world. Ultimately he has to announce he will step down as PM, by October this year.

Strangely the entire Remain-Vs.-Leave campaign turned in to an exercise of fear-inducing, anti-immigrant, nationalistic jingoism. Emotion of a huge section of people took over the rationality and inclusive nature. The world’s oldest democracy stunned everyone, including itself.

Some commentators also saw this as uprising of the common people or working class against the London-elites. Some claimed this is an assertion of struggling lots against the well-to-do, university-educated superior folks.  

One thing, very definitely, can be deduced – the exit of UK from EU is irreversible and has long-lasting after-effect. 

Now there is time-slot of two years for the actual procedures. The new UK government will have a lot on their plate to finish:

• Negotiate new deal with the EU. Terms of exit have to be negotiated with 27 EU nations, each of which, will have a veto over the conditions!
• Commence new changes for major bilateral trade deals around the world.
• Revise its own governance and management because the EU laws and regulations withdraw.
• Tackle the heightened separatist tendencies within the UK. Scotland already contemplating a proactive departure with demand to have another plebiscite! Northern Ireland, could very well be the next.     

As for India, there are following apparent implications in the near-term:

1. There are 800 Indian companies that have set up operation in the huge Europe market via the UK. Now they have to deal with the uncertainty and find out fresher ways to do job in the continent. The decline in the value of the Pound could impact the decision making.
2. The UK and Europe constitute 30 percent of the India IT industry's revenues. There is no clarity as to what may be in store. There might be very significant changes of IT priorities and business opportunities across EU & UK, impacting Indian IT companies directly.  
3. There are thousands of Goan people on a Portugal passport in the UK, ostensibly procured to chase ‘good UK life’ dreams leaving India. So when there is no free movement now, and UK tells these to leave, they need to go to Portugal or back home. There are question marks on their prospects.      

Most certainly the world politics and economy will not be the same again, as we identified till now. France, Italy, The Netherlands, among others might want to leave the EU.

P. S. – When I had serious discussions on #Brexit with my friends and colleagues they had varying opinions. Some said it is too big, let it unfold and then we will see. Others pointed out the momentous turn of events has far-reaching consequences and the repercussions may not be that pleasant, overall.  

One more knowledgeable friend had an interesting take – this is the last call to get rid of the British colonial hangover.  And this is the virtual end of the British hegemony of last 300 years.

Now, that is a different topic to ponder on and write an entirely separate article for this site, some other time.